The entry-level market and the "bread and butter" segment
As expected, the pressure has increased in the entry-level market up to SEK 10 million after the equity requirement was lowered. This has led to increased activity and more financing certificates, but at the same time the price increase has eaten up much of the effect. Already in January, we are seeing clear signs of what's to come.
The market up to around NOK 15 million in Oslo and the surrounding area is working well, but with historically few new-build projects, long zoning processes and few major projects on the way in Greater Oslo, we will see a backlog over the next three years. This will maintain the imbalance in the entry-level market and push prices up further.
Everything therefore suggests that prices in this segment will continue to rise. For those planning to change homes, now is a good time to sign up for one of the upcoming new housing projects with sales starting this year. In this way, you can secure a home that will probably have risen by 10-15% before you take possession of it, while at the same time getting the maximum profit for your existing home in the same segment.
The luxury market
In the luxury market (20 million+) in Oslo and the surrounding area, the situation is different. The market was slow throughout last year and looks set to remain challenging in 2025, characterized by an imbalance where supply exceeds demand. This also includes the growing off-market segment, which is Boligagenten AS's specialty. Volumes are increasing in secret, and more and more luxury properties are being offered outside the open market.
When homes are correctly priced, they find buyers over time, but there is still a backlog of sellers who have to adjust their price expectations. Some of this is due to brokers who, in the competition for sales assignments, give over-optimistic price assessments. As a result, it often takes time for the market and sellers to meet at the right level. The exceptions are the very unique gems, which will always achieve good prices regardless of market conditions.
The luxury market has also been affected by tax issues, with hundreds of Norwegians moving to Switzerland and other countries. This has weakened demand in the 30-100 million price segment, even though many of these homes are solved internally in families through transfers to relatives or former spouses. Nevertheless, the imbalance is noticeable - it's rare to see as many as seven luxury villas in Madserud and eight city villas in Oslo West available at the same time.
In this market, Boligagenten AS finds that many owners choose a discreet sales process rather than advertising openly. This means that even fewer exciting properties are appearing on Finn.no, while at the same time we are seeing increased demand from buyers who want access to our network.
For those who are considering buying into the luxury segment, this is a favorable time. It is still possible to sell a home in the 20-30 million price range with little or no discount, while at the same time it is possible to achieve significant price reductions on more expensive homes, where there are fewer buyers. We believe this trend will continue through 2025 and possibly all of 2026.
In the longer term, however, the picture may change. If a new government introduces more favorable tax rules, the flow of tax refugees could be reversed. In that case, the demand for luxury properties in Oslo and the surrounding area will strengthen again in 3-4 years, and prices could rise. Perhaps we will then look back and say:
"Do you remember 2025? We had seven villas for sale at Madserud - now there are none!"
Run and buy 😊
